San Cristóbal vs Peralada Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
San Cristóbal vs Peralada
Model pick: Peralada (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Cristóbal | Peralada |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*San Cristóbal shown at home, Peralada shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Cristóbal — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Peralada — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 34% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Cristóbal (home) | Peralada (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 34% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — San Cristóbal or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Peralada or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| San Cristóbal clean sheet | 35% |
| Peralada clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Peralada is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Peralada edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Cristóbal vs Peralada — FAQ
Who will win San Cristóbal vs Peralada?
Our statistical model makes Peralada the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: San Cristóbal 34%, draw 31%, Peralada 36%.
Will both teams score in San Cristóbal vs Peralada?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Cristóbal vs Peralada?
Expected goals are 0.99 for San Cristóbal and 1.04 for Peralada — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Cristóbal vs Peralada?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for San Cristóbal or draw is 64%.