San Diego FC vs Dallas Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
San Diego FC vs Dallas
Model pick: San Diego FC (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.05
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Diego FC | Dallas |
|---|
| League position | #12 (17 pts) | #5 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.6 / 1.7 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*San Diego FC shown at home, Dallas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Diego FC — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 48% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Dallas — last 5
LWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Diego FC (home) | Dallas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (2.6 / 1.7 goals per game) | 4-0-2 in 6 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 48% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (13) | Petar Musa (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — San Diego FC or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Dallas or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| San Diego FC clean sheet | 35% |
| Dallas clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Diego FC is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. San Diego FC are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ San Diego FC vs Dallas — FAQ
Who will win San Diego FC vs Dallas?
Our statistical model makes San Diego FC the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: San Diego FC 50%, draw 25%, Dallas 24%.
Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Dallas?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Diego FC vs Dallas?
Expected goals are 1.74 for San Diego FC and 1.05 for Dallas — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Diego FC vs Dallas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for San Diego FC or draw is 77%.