San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes
Model pick: San Diego FC (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.25 – 1.01
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Diego FC | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|
| League position | #12 (17 pts) | #2 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.6 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 2.6 |
*San Diego FC shown at home, SJ Earthquakes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Diego FC — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
SJ Earthquakes — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Diego FC (home) | SJ Earthquakes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (2.6 / 1.7 goals per game) | 6-1-1 in 8 (2.2 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (16) | Preston Judd (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.25 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — San Diego FC or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — SJ Earthquakes or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| San Diego FC clean sheet | 36% |
| SJ Earthquakes clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Diego FC is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. San Diego FC are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes — FAQ
Who will win San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes?
Our statistical model makes San Diego FC the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: San Diego FC 58%, draw 21%, SJ Earthquakes 21%.
Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes?
Expected goals are 2.25 for San Diego FC and 1.01 for SJ Earthquakes — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Diego FC vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for San Diego FC or draw is 84%.