San Juan vs Cortes Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
San Juan vs Cortes
Model pick: San Juan (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 0.61
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Juan | Cortes |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*San Juan shown at home, Cortes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Juan — last 5
WLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 59% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Cortes — last 5
LLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Juan (home) | Cortes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 59% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 40% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 0.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — San Juan or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Cortes or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| San Juan clean sheet | 54% |
| Cortes clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Juan is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. San Juan are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Juan vs Cortes — FAQ
Who will win San Juan vs Cortes?
Our statistical model makes San Juan the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: San Juan 51%, draw 30%, Cortes 19%.
Will both teams score in San Juan vs Cortes?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Juan vs Cortes?
Expected goals are 1.32 for San Juan and 0.61 for Cortes — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Juan vs Cortes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for San Juan or draw is 83%.