San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Jul 28, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Model pick: Draw (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.11 – 0.51
Total goals: 0.6
Over 2.5: 12%
Both teams score: 20%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Lorenzo | Gimnasia Mendoza |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #11 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
*San Lorenzo shown at home, Gimnasia Mendoza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Lorenzo — last 5
WDDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Gimnasia Mendoza — last 5
W
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Lorenzo (home) | Gimnasia Mendoza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-3-4 in 8 (0.6 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 0% |
| Top scorer | Rodrigo Auzmendi (4) | – |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.11 vs 0.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (54%) |
| Double chance — San Lorenzo or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Gimnasia Mendoza or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 43% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| San Lorenzo clean sheet | 60% |
| Gimnasia Mendoza clean sheet | 90% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (88% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza — FAQ
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: San Lorenzo 9%, draw 54%, Gimnasia Mendoza 37%.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The model gives a 20% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
Expected goals are 0.11 for San Lorenzo and 0.51 for Gimnasia Mendoza — about 0.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (54%). Double chance for San Lorenzo or draw is 63%.