San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba
Model pick: San Lorenzo (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 0.79
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Lorenzo | Talleres de Córdoba |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #4 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*San Lorenzo shown at home, Talleres de Córdoba shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Lorenzo — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 29% of home games go over 2.5.
Talleres de Córdoba — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Lorenzo (home) | Talleres de Córdoba (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-4-2 in 9 (0.9 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Rodrigo Auzmendi (5) | – |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — San Lorenzo or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Talleres de Córdoba or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| San Lorenzo clean sheet | 45% |
| Talleres de Córdoba clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Lorenzo is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. San Lorenzo are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba — FAQ
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba?
Our statistical model makes San Lorenzo the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: San Lorenzo 37%, draw 32%, Talleres de Córdoba 31%.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba?
Expected goals are 1.04 for San Lorenzo and 0.79 for Talleres de Córdoba — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Lorenzo vs Talleres de Córdoba?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for San Lorenzo or draw is 73%.