San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes
Model pick: Argentino Quilmes (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Martín Burzaco | Argentino Quilmes |
|---|
| League position | #13 (37 pts) | #14 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 13% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 0.2 / 0.0 |
*San Martín Burzaco shown at home, Argentino Quilmes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Martín Burzaco — last 5
LLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 56% of the time; 22% of home games go over 2.5.
Argentino Quilmes — last 5
DDDDW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Martín Burzaco (home) | Argentino Quilmes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-8-5 in 15 (0.9 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-6-5 in 15 (0.9 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 56% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 40% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.06
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — San Martín Burzaco or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Argentino Quilmes or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| San Martín Burzaco clean sheet | 35% |
| Argentino Quilmes clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Argentino Quilmes is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Argentino Quilmes edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes — FAQ
Who will win San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes?
Our statistical model makes Argentino Quilmes the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: San Martín Burzaco 34%, draw 31%, Argentino Quilmes 36%.
Will both teams score in San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes?
Expected goals are 1.02 for San Martín Burzaco and 1.06 for Argentino Quilmes — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (14%). Double chance for San Martín Burzaco or draw is 64%.