San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo
Model pick: San Martín Burzaco (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Martín Burzaco | Deportivo Merlo |
|---|
| League position | #13 (35 pts) | #11 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 15% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*San Martín Burzaco shown at home, Deportivo Merlo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Martín Burzaco — last 5
DDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 56% of the time; 23% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Merlo — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Martín Burzaco (home) | Deportivo Merlo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-6-5 in 13 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-5-5 in 13 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 56% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 33% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.06
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — San Martín Burzaco or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Merlo or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| San Martín Burzaco clean sheet | 41% |
| Deportivo Merlo clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Martín Burzaco is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. San Martín Burzaco are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo — FAQ
Who will win San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our statistical model makes San Martín Burzaco the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: San Martín Burzaco 41%, draw 31%, Deportivo Merlo 29%.
Will both teams score in San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?
Expected goals are 1.16 for San Martín Burzaco and 0.88 for Deportivo Merlo — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Merlo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for San Martín Burzaco or draw is 72%.