San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes
Model pick: San Martín Tucumán (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.97 – 0.34
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Martín Tucumán | Club A. Guemes |
|---|
| League position | #8 (35 pts) | #18 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*San Martín Tucumán shown at home, Club A. Guemes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Martín Tucumán — last 5
LLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Club A. Guemes — last 5
LLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Martín Tucumán (home) | Club A. Guemes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-7-2 in 13 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-4-8 in 13 (0.8 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 40% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.16
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.97 vs 0.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — San Martín Tucumán or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Club A. Guemes or draw (X2) | 11% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| San Martín Tucumán clean sheet | 71% |
| Club A. Guemes clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Martín Tucumán is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. San Martín Tucumán are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes — FAQ
Who will win San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes?
Our statistical model makes San Martín Tucumán the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: San Martín Tucumán 85%, draw 11%, Club A. Guemes 4%.
Will both teams score in San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes?
Expected goals are 2.97 for San Martín Tucumán and 0.34 for Club A. Guemes — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Martín Tucumán vs Club A. Guemes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (16%). Double chance for San Martín Tucumán or draw is 98%.