San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn
Model pick: Deportivo Madryn (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 1.05
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Martín Tucumán | Deportivo Madryn |
|---|
| League position | #9 (31 pts) | #6 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*San Martín Tucumán shown at home, Deportivo Madryn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Martín Tucumán — last 5
WDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Madryn — last 5
LDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 75% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Martín Tucumán (home) | Deportivo Madryn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-6-2 in 12 (1.2 / 0.7 goals per game) | 4-5-3 in 12 (1.2 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 25% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.13
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — San Martín Tucumán or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Madryn or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| San Martín Tucumán clean sheet | 35% |
| Deportivo Madryn clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Madryn is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Deportivo Madryn edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn — FAQ
Who will win San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Madryn the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: San Martín Tucumán 24%, draw 33%, Deportivo Madryn 43%.
Will both teams score in San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn?
Expected goals are 0.67 for San Martín Tucumán and 1.05 for Deportivo Madryn — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Martín Tucumán vs Deportivo Madryn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for San Martín Tucumán or draw is 56%.