San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction & Preview
Argentino A (Argentina) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO A (ARGENTINA)
San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela
Model pick: San Martin Formosa (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.48 – 0.4
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Martin Formosa | 9 de Julio Rafaela |
|---|
| League position | #1 (27 pts) | #5 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 71% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*San Martin Formosa shown at home, 9 de Julio Rafaela shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Martin Formosa — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
9 de Julio Rafaela — last 5
LLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Martin Formosa (home) | 9 de Julio Rafaela (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-0 in 7 (2.0 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-3-4 in 8 (0.8 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 67% |
Argentino A (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.0
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 38%
Use these Argentino A (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.48 vs 0.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — San Martin Formosa or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — 9 de Julio Rafaela or draw (X2) | 17% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| San Martin Formosa clean sheet | 67% |
| 9 de Julio Rafaela clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Martin Formosa is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. San Martin Formosa are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela — FAQ
Who will win San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela?
Our statistical model makes San Martin Formosa the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: San Martin Formosa 78%, draw 16%, 9 de Julio Rafaela 6%.
Will both teams score in San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela?
Expected goals are 2.48 for San Martin Formosa and 0.4 for 9 de Julio Rafaela — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Martin Formosa vs 9 de Julio Rafaela?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (17%). Double chance for San Martin Formosa or draw is 96%.