San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo Prediction & Preview
Argentino A (Argentina) · Aug 12, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO A (ARGENTINA)
San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo
Model pick: San Martin Mendoza (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.51 – 1.08
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Martin Mendoza | Sol de Mayo |
|---|
| League position | #7 (18 pts) | #6 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.33 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.67 |
*San Martin Mendoza shown at home, Sol de Mayo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Martin Mendoza — last 5
WDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Sol de Mayo — last 5
LLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Martin Mendoza (home) | Sol de Mayo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-0 in 7 (1.0 / 0.3 goals per game) | 2-1-5 in 8 (0.6 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
Argentino A (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.04
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 18%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 36%
Use these Argentino A (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.51 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — San Martin Mendoza or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Sol de Mayo or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| San Martin Mendoza clean sheet | 34% |
| Sol de Mayo clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Martin Mendoza is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. San Martin Mendoza are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo — FAQ
Who will win San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo?
Our statistical model makes San Martin Mendoza the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: San Martin Mendoza 77%, draw 13%, Sol de Mayo 10%.
Will both teams score in San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo?
Expected goals are 3.51 for San Martin Mendoza and 1.08 for Sol de Mayo — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Martin Mendoza vs Sol de Mayo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (8%). Double chance for San Martin Mendoza or draw is 92%.