San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II
Model pick: San Roque Lepe (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Roque Lepe | Ceuta II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*San Roque Lepe shown at home, Ceuta II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Roque Lepe — last 5
DLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Ceuta II — last 5
DWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Roque Lepe (home) | Ceuta II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 37% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — San Roque Lepe or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Ceuta II or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| San Roque Lepe clean sheet | 43% |
| Ceuta II clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Roque Lepe is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. San Roque Lepe are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II — FAQ
Who will win San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II?
Our statistical model makes San Roque Lepe the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: San Roque Lepe 40%, draw 32%, Ceuta II 29%.
Will both teams score in San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II?
Expected goals are 1.09 for San Roque Lepe and 0.85 for Ceuta II — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for San Roque Lepe or draw is 72%.