San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve
Model pick: San Sebastian Reyes B (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Sebastian Reyes B | Unión Adarve |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 1.0 |
*San Sebastian Reyes B shown at home, Unión Adarve shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Sebastian Reyes B — last 5
DLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Unión Adarve — last 5
WWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Sebastian Reyes B (home) | Unión Adarve (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 54% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — San Sebastian Reyes B or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Unión Adarve or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| San Sebastian Reyes B clean sheet | 37% |
| Unión Adarve clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Sebastian Reyes B is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. San Sebastian Reyes B are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve — FAQ
Who will win San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve?
Our statistical model makes San Sebastian Reyes B the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: San Sebastian Reyes B 45%, draw 28%, Unión Adarve 27%.
Will both teams score in San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve?
Expected goals are 1.45 for San Sebastian Reyes B and 1.0 for Unión Adarve — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Sebastian Reyes B vs Unión Adarve?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for San Sebastian Reyes B or draw is 74%.