Sanat Naft vs Malavan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Sanat Naft vs Malavan
Model pick: Malavan (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sanat Naft | Malavan |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*Sanat Naft shown at home, Malavan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sanat Naft — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Malavan — last 5
WLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sanat Naft (home) | Malavan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 25% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Sanat Naft or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Malavan or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Sanat Naft clean sheet | 36% |
| Malavan clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Malavan is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Despite playing away, Malavan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sanat Naft vs Malavan — FAQ
Who will win Sanat Naft vs Malavan?
Our statistical model makes Malavan the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Sanat Naft 34%, draw 31%, Malavan 35%.
Will both teams score in Sanat Naft vs Malavan?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sanat Naft vs Malavan?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Sanat Naft and 1.03 for Malavan — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sanat Naft vs Malavan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Sanat Naft or draw is 65%.