Sanat Naft vs Sepahan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Sanat Naft vs Sepahan
Model pick: Sepahan (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 1.7
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sanat Naft | Sepahan |
|---|
| League position | #13 (2 pts) | #10 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Sanat Naft shown at home, Sepahan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sanat Naft — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Sepahan — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sanat Naft (home) | Sepahan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 35% |
| Top scorer | – | Milad Zakipour (1) |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 1.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Sanat Naft or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Sepahan or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Sanat Naft clean sheet | 18% |
| Sepahan clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sepahan is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Sepahan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sanat Naft vs Sepahan — FAQ
Who will win Sanat Naft vs Sepahan?
Our statistical model makes Sepahan the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Sanat Naft 17%, draw 25%, Sepahan 58%.
Will both teams score in Sanat Naft vs Sepahan?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sanat Naft vs Sepahan?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Sanat Naft and 1.7 for Sepahan — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sanat Naft vs Sepahan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Sanat Naft or draw is 38%.