Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna
Model pick: Górnik Łęczna (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.49
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sandecja Nowy Sącz | Górnik Łęczna |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #8 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Sandecja Nowy Sącz shown at home, Górnik Łęczna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sandecja Nowy Sącz — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Łęczna — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sandecja Nowy Sącz (home) | Górnik Łęczna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 59% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Górnik Łęczna or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Sandecja Nowy Sącz clean sheet | 23% |
| Górnik Łęczna clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Górnik Łęczna is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Górnik Łęczna edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna — FAQ
Who will win Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model makes Górnik Łęczna the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 35%, draw 26%, Górnik Łęczna 39%.
Will both teams score in Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 1.49 for Górnik Łęczna — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw is 60%.