Sandefjord vs KFUM Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Sandefjord vs KFUM
Model pick: Sandefjord (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sandefjord | KFUM |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #14 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 2.4 |
*Sandefjord shown at home, KFUM shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sandefjord — last 5
WDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
KFUM — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sandefjord (home) | KFUM (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-2 in 7 (0.9 / 1.1 goals per game) | 0-2-4 in 6 (1.2 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.28 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sandefjord or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — KFUM or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Sandefjord clean sheet | 30% |
| KFUM clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sandefjord is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Sandefjord are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sandefjord vs KFUM — FAQ
Who will win Sandefjord vs KFUM?
Our statistical model makes Sandefjord the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Sandefjord 42%, draw 26%, KFUM 31%.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs KFUM?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sandefjord vs KFUM?
Expected goals are 1.28 for Sandefjord and 1.2 for KFUM — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sandefjord vs KFUM?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sandefjord or draw is 65%.