Åsane vs Egersund Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Åsane vs Egersund
Model pick: Egersund (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.91
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Åsane | Egersund |
|---|
| League position | #15 (12 pts) | #9 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.6 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Åsane shown at home, Egersund shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Åsane — last 5
LDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Egersund — last 5
DWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 71% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Åsane (home) | Egersund (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-3 in 7 (2.3 / 1.7 goals per game) | 1-0-5 in 6 (1.7 / 2.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 71% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Åsane or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Egersund or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Åsane clean sheet | 15% |
| Egersund clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Egersund is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Egersund edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Åsane vs Egersund — FAQ
Who will win Åsane vs Egersund?
Our statistical model makes Egersund the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Åsane 28%, draw 24%, Egersund 48%.
Will both teams score in Åsane vs Egersund?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Åsane vs Egersund?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Åsane and 1.91 for Egersund — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Åsane vs Egersund?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Åsane or draw is 50%.