Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction & Preview
J-League (Japan) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
Model pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Sanfrecce Hiroshima shown at home, Nagoya Grampus shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sanfrecce Hiroshima — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Nagoya Grampus — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (home) | Nagoya Grampus (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Yuya Yamagishi (10) |
J-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Nagoya Grampus or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet | 46% |
| Nagoya Grampus clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sanfrecce Hiroshima is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus — FAQ
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?
Our statistical model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 53%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 20%.
Will both teams score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.77 for Nagoya Grampus — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw is 82%.