Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II
Model pick: UCAM Murcia II (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.54
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Santomera | UCAM Murcia II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Santomera shown at home, UCAM Murcia II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Santomera — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
UCAM Murcia II — last 5
DWDDD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Santomera (home) | UCAM Murcia II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 44% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Santomera or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — UCAM Murcia II or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Santomera clean sheet | 21% |
| UCAM Murcia II clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
UCAM Murcia II is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, UCAM Murcia II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II — FAQ
Who will win Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II?
Our statistical model makes UCAM Murcia II the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Santomera 33%, draw 26%, UCAM Murcia II 41%.
Will both teams score in Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Santomera and 1.54 for UCAM Murcia II — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Santomera or draw is 58%.