Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara
Model pick: Guadalajara (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.54
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Santos Laguna | Guadalajara |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #12 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
*Santos Laguna shown at home, Guadalajara shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Santos Laguna — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Guadalajara — last 5
DWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Santos Laguna (home) | Guadalajara (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Lucas Di Yorio (6) | – |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Santos Laguna or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Guadalajara or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Santos Laguna clean sheet | 21% |
| Guadalajara clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, Guadalajara edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara — FAQ
Who will win Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?
Our statistical model makes Guadalajara the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Santos Laguna 21%, draw 23%, Guadalajara 56%.
Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Santos Laguna and 1.54 for Guadalajara — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Santos Laguna or draw is 52%.