Santos vs Chapecoense Prediction & Preview
Serie A (Brazil) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE A (BRAZIL)
Santos vs Chapecoense
Model pick: Santos (62%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.88 – 0.67
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Santos | Chapecoense |
|---|
| League position | #15 (21 pts) | #20 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Santos shown at home, Chapecoense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Santos — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Chapecoense — last 5
DWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Santos (home) | Chapecoense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 0-2-7 in 9 (0.4 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Barbosa Gabriel (7) | – |
Serie A (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie A (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.88 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Santos or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Chapecoense or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Santos clean sheet | 51% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Santos is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Santos are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Santos vs Chapecoense — FAQ
Who will win Santos vs Chapecoense?
Our statistical model makes Santos the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Santos 62%, draw 23%, Chapecoense 15%.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Chapecoense?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Santos vs Chapecoense?
Expected goals are 1.88 for Santos and 0.67 for Chapecoense — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Santos vs Chapecoense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Santos or draw is 87%.