Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP
Model pick: Sao Bernardo (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.88 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sao Bernardo | Botafogo SP |
|---|
| League position | #10 (30 pts) | #13 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Sao Bernardo shown at home, Botafogo SP shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sao Bernardo — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Botafogo SP — last 5
DDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sao Bernardo (home) | Botafogo SP (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-4 in 11 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-4-5 in 11 (0.6 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 32% |
| Top scorer | – | Barletta Chrystian (8) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.88 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sao Bernardo or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Botafogo SP or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Sao Bernardo clean sheet | 44% |
| Botafogo SP clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sao Bernardo is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Sao Bernardo are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP — FAQ
Who will win Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
Our statistical model makes Sao Bernardo the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Sao Bernardo 58%, draw 24%, Botafogo SP 18%.
Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
Expected goals are 1.88 for Sao Bernardo and 0.82 for Botafogo SP — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sao Bernardo or draw is 84%.