Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP
Model pick: Sao Bernardo (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.1 – 0.78
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sao Bernardo | Botafogo SP |
|---|
| League position | #9 (30 pts) | #16 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Sao Bernardo shown at home, Botafogo SP shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sao Bernardo — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Botafogo SP — last 5
DDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sao Bernardo (home) | Botafogo SP (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-4 in 11 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-4-5 in 11 (0.6 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 32% |
| Top scorer | – | Barletta Chrystian (8) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.1 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sao Bernardo or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Botafogo SP or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Sao Bernardo clean sheet | 46% |
| Botafogo SP clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sao Bernardo is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Sao Bernardo are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP — FAQ
Who will win Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
Our statistical model makes Sao Bernardo the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Sao Bernardo 63%, draw 22%, Botafogo SP 15%.
Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
Expected goals are 2.1 for Sao Bernardo and 0.78 for Botafogo SP — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Sao Bernardo or draw is 87%.