Sao Bernardo vs Ceará Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sao Bernardo vs Ceará
Model pick: Sao Bernardo (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.02
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sao Bernardo | Ceará |
|---|
| League position | #9 (27 pts) | #18 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 20% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.25 / 1.75 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Sao Bernardo shown at home, Ceará shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sao Bernardo — last 5
LDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Ceará — last 5
LLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sao Bernardo (home) | Ceará (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-3 in 10 (1.0 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-4-4 in 9 (0.7 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 39% |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sao Bernardo or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Ceará or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Sao Bernardo clean sheet | 36% |
| Ceará clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sao Bernardo is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Sao Bernardo are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sao Bernardo vs Ceará — FAQ
Who will win Sao Bernardo vs Ceará?
Our statistical model makes Sao Bernardo the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Sao Bernardo 40%, draw 29%, Ceará 31%.
Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo vs Ceará?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sao Bernardo vs Ceará?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Sao Bernardo and 1.02 for Ceará — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sao Bernardo vs Ceará?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sao Bernardo or draw is 69%.