Sao Bernardo vs Londrina Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sao Bernardo vs Londrina
Model pick: Sao Bernardo (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sao Bernardo | Londrina |
|---|
| League position | #14 (32 pts) | #18 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 15% | 15% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.0 |
*Sao Bernardo shown at home, Londrina shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sao Bernardo — last 5
WLDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Londrina — last 5
LLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sao Bernardo (home) | Londrina (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-6-5 in 13 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-2-9 in 13 (1.1 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% |
| Top scorer | – | Santos Bruno (10) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sao Bernardo or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Londrina or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Sao Bernardo clean sheet | 39% |
| Londrina clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sao Bernardo is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Sao Bernardo are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sao Bernardo vs Londrina — FAQ
Who will win Sao Bernardo vs Londrina?
Our statistical model makes Sao Bernardo the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Sao Bernardo 47%, draw 28%, Londrina 26%.
Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo vs Londrina?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sao Bernardo vs Londrina?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Sao Bernardo and 0.95 for Londrina — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sao Bernardo vs Londrina?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sao Bernardo or draw is 76%.