Sarbogard vs Siofok Prediction & Preview
Nb III (Hungary) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB III (HUNGARY)
Sarbogard vs Siofok
Model pick: Siofok (68%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.15 – 1.46
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 33%
Both teams score: 29%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sarbogard | Siofok |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.25 / 3.0 | 1.0 / 1.25 |
*Sarbogard shown at home, Siofok shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sarbogard — last 5
LLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Siofok — last 5
LLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sarbogard (home) | Siofok (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Nb III (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.3
Home wins: 50%
Draws: 17%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Nb III (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.15 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (29%) |
| Double chance — Sarbogard or draw (1X) | 28% |
| Double chance — Siofok or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Sarbogard clean sheet | 23% |
| Siofok clean sheet | 86% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Siofok is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Siofok edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (67% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sarbogard vs Siofok — FAQ
Who will win Sarbogard vs Siofok?
Our statistical model makes Siofok the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Sarbogard 5%, draw 27%, Siofok 68%.
Will both teams score in Sarbogard vs Siofok?
The model gives a 29% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sarbogard vs Siofok?
Expected goals are 0.15 for Sarbogard and 1.46 for Siofok — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sarbogard vs Siofok?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (29%). Double chance for Sarbogard or draw is 28%.