Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam
Model pick: Sarpsborg 08 (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.87 – 1.19
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sarpsborg 08 | HamKam |
|---|
| League position | #7 (18 pts) | #8 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 2.4 |
*Sarpsborg 08 shown at home, HamKam shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 — last 5
WWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
HamKam — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sarpsborg 08 (home) | HamKam (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-1 in 6 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-3-3 in 6 (1.2 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.87 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Sarpsborg 08 or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — HamKam or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Sarpsborg 08 clean sheet | 30% |
| HamKam clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sarpsborg 08 is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Sarpsborg 08 are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam — FAQ
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam?
Our statistical model makes Sarpsborg 08 the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 50%, draw 24%, HamKam 26%.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam?
Expected goals are 1.87 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.19 for HamKam — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Sarpsborg 08 or draw is 76%.