Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord
Model pick: Sarpsborg 08 (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.98 – 1.33
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sarpsborg 08 | Sandefjord |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #13 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Sarpsborg 08 shown at home, Sandefjord shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 — last 5
WDWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Sandefjord — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sarpsborg 08 (home) | Sandefjord (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.1 / 0.7 goals per game) | 2-0-6 in 8 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 64% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.98 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Sarpsborg 08 or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Sandefjord or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Sarpsborg 08 clean sheet | 26% |
| Sandefjord clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sarpsborg 08 is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Sarpsborg 08 are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord — FAQ
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model makes Sarpsborg 08 the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 50%, draw 24%, Sandefjord 27%.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?
Expected goals are 1.98 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.33 for Sandefjord — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Sarpsborg 08 or draw is 74%.