Schoningen vs St. Pauli II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Schoningen vs St. Pauli II
Model pick: Schoningen (81%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.39 – 0.23
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Schoningen | St. Pauli II |
|---|
| League position | #3 (10 pts) | #14 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Schoningen shown at home, St. Pauli II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Schoningen — last 5
WWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Pauli II — last 5
DLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Schoningen (home) | St. Pauli II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (2.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 65%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.39 vs 0.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Schoningen or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — St. Pauli II or draw (X2) | 14% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Schoningen clean sheet | 79% |
| St. Pauli II clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Schoningen is the model's most likely outcome at
81%. Schoningen are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Schoningen vs St. Pauli II — FAQ
Who will win Schoningen vs St. Pauli II?
Our statistical model makes Schoningen the most likely result at 81%. Full probabilities: Schoningen 81%, draw 15%, St. Pauli II 4%.
Will both teams score in Schoningen vs St. Pauli II?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Schoningen vs St. Pauli II?
Expected goals are 2.39 for Schoningen and 0.23 for St. Pauli II — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Schoningen vs St. Pauli II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (21%). Double chance for Schoningen or draw is 98%.