Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II Prediction & Preview
1-Liga (Austria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-LIGA (AUSTRIA)
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II
Model pick: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.66
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | Sturm Graz II |
|---|
| League position | #11 (4 pts) | #14 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 2.8 |
*Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz shown at home, Sturm Graz II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz — last 5
WWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Sturm Graz II — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (home) | Sturm Graz II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 68% |
1-Liga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.98
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 1-Liga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz II or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz clean sheet | 19% |
| Sturm Graz II clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II — FAQ
Who will win Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
Our statistical model makes Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 43%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz II 32%.
Will both teams score in Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and 1.66 for Sturm Graz II — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs Sturm Graz II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or draw is 64%.