Schwerin vs TB Berlin Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Schwerin vs TB Berlin
Model pick: TB Berlin (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Schwerin | TB Berlin |
|---|
| League position | #2 (4 pts) | #10 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.75 / 1.75 | 0.75 / 2.0 |
*Schwerin shown at home, TB Berlin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Schwerin — last 5
LLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
TB Berlin — last 5
LLDD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Schwerin (home) | TB Berlin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.34
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Schwerin or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — TB Berlin or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Schwerin clean sheet | 31% |
| TB Berlin clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
TB Berlin is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, TB Berlin edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Schwerin vs TB Berlin — FAQ
Who will win Schwerin vs TB Berlin?
Our statistical model makes TB Berlin the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Schwerin 28%, draw 30%, TB Berlin 41%.
Will both teams score in Schwerin vs TB Berlin?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Schwerin vs TB Berlin?
Expected goals are 0.89 for Schwerin and 1.17 for TB Berlin — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Schwerin vs TB Berlin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Schwerin or draw is 58%.