Seoul vs Ulsan Prediction & Preview
K-League (South Korea) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K-LEAGUE (SOUTH KOREA)
Seoul vs Ulsan
Model pick: Seoul (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Seoul | Ulsan |
|---|
| League position | #1 (42 pts) | #4 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Seoul shown at home, Ulsan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Seoul — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Ulsan — last 5
LDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Seoul (home) | Ulsan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.7 / 0.6 goals per game) | 4-3-2 in 9 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Patryk Klimala (2) | – |
K-League (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 55%
Use these K-League (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Seoul or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Ulsan or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Seoul clean sheet | 30% |
| Ulsan clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Seoul is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Seoul are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Seoul vs Ulsan — FAQ
Who will win Seoul vs Ulsan?
Our statistical model makes Seoul the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Seoul 40%, draw 27%, Ulsan 33%.
Will both teams score in Seoul vs Ulsan?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Seoul vs Ulsan?
Expected goals are 1.38 for Seoul and 1.21 for Ulsan — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Seoul vs Ulsan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Seoul or draw is 67%.