Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Model pick: Septemvri Sofia (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Septemvri Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|
| League position | #6 (8 pts) | #11 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.4 |
*Septemvri Sofia shown at home, Botev Vratsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Septemvri Sofia — last 5
LLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Vratsa — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Septemvri Sofia (home) | Botev Vratsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.7 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Martin Petkov (4) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Septemvri Sofia or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Botev Vratsa or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Septemvri Sofia clean sheet | 34% |
| Botev Vratsa clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Septemvri Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Septemvri Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa — FAQ
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
Our statistical model makes Septemvri Sofia the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 39%, draw 30%, Botev Vratsa 32%.
Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.09 for Botev Vratsa — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Septemvri Sofia or draw is 67%.