Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Model pick: CSKA 1948 Sofia (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.86 – 1.83
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Septemvri Sofia | CSKA 1948 Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #12 (1 pts) | #3 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 2.0 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Septemvri Sofia shown at home, CSKA 1948 Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Septemvri Sofia — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
CSKA 1948 Sofia — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Septemvri Sofia (home) | CSKA 1948 Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 40% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.86 vs 1.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Septemvri Sofia or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — CSKA 1948 Sofia or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Septemvri Sofia clean sheet | 16% |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA 1948 Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, CSKA 1948 Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
Our statistical model makes CSKA 1948 Sofia the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 20%, draw 24%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 56%.
Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.86 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.83 for CSKA 1948 Sofia — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Septemvri Sofia or draw is 40%.