Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (62%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 1.9
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Septemvri Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #13 (1 pts) | #4 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Septemvri Sofia shown at home, CSKA Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Septemvri Sofia — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
CSKA Sofia — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 47% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Septemvri Sofia (home) | CSKA Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 35% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 1.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Septemvri Sofia or draw (1X) | 33% |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Septemvri Sofia clean sheet | 15% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Despite playing away, CSKA Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 15%, draw 23%, CSKA Sofia 62%.
Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.9 for CSKA Sofia — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Septemvri Sofia or draw is 33%.