SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira
Model pick: SER Caxias (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.86 – 0.74
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| SER Caxias | Inter de Limeira |
|---|
| League position | #14 (24 pts) | #4 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*SER Caxias shown at home, Inter de Limeira shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
SER Caxias — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Inter de Limeira — last 5
WLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | SER Caxias (home) | Inter de Limeira (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-2 in 9 (1.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 5-1-3 in 9 (1.3 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.86 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (20%) |
| Double chance — SER Caxias or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Inter de Limeira or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| SER Caxias clean sheet | 48% |
| Inter de Limeira clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
SER Caxias is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. SER Caxias are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira — FAQ
Who will win SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira?
Our statistical model makes SER Caxias the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: SER Caxias 36%, draw 35%, Inter de Limeira 30%.
Will both teams score in SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira?
Expected goals are 0.86 for SER Caxias and 0.74 for Inter de Limeira — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in SER Caxias vs Inter de Limeira?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (20%). Double chance for SER Caxias or draw is 71%.