Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian
Model pick: Shaanxi Union (76%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.32 – 1.66
Total goals: 6.0
Over 2.5: 82%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shaanxi Union | Dingnan Ganlian |
|---|
| League position | #6 (29 pts) | #12 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
*Shaanxi Union shown at home, Dingnan Ganlian shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shaanxi Union — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Dingnan Ganlian — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shaanxi Union (home) | Dingnan Ganlian (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-1 in 9 (1.8 / 0.6 goals per game) | 2-6-2 in 10 (1.6 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 80% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.32 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-1 (6%) |
| Double chance — Shaanxi Union or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Dingnan Ganlian or draw (X2) | 19% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Shaanxi Union clean sheet | 19% |
| Dingnan Ganlian clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shaanxi Union is the model's most likely outcome at
76%. Shaanxi Union are backed at home, where they average 2.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.0, this shapes as an open game (82% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian — FAQ
Who will win Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian?
Our statistical model makes Shaanxi Union the most likely result at 76%. Full probabilities: Shaanxi Union 76%, draw 12%, Dingnan Ganlian 12%.
Will both teams score in Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian?
Expected goals are 4.32 for Shaanxi Union and 1.66 for Dingnan Ganlian — about 6.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shaanxi Union vs Dingnan Ganlian?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-1 (6%). Double chance for Shaanxi Union or draw is 91%.