Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding
Model pick: Shaanxi Union (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.76 – 1.51
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shaanxi Union | Yanbian Longding |
|---|
| League position | #6 (26 pts) | #3 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Shaanxi Union shown at home, Yanbian Longding shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shaanxi Union — last 5
WDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Yanbian Longding — last 5
WDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shaanxi Union (home) | Yanbian Longding (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-1 in 8 (1.6 / 0.5 goals per game) | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.0
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.76 vs 1.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Shaanxi Union or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Yanbian Longding or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Shaanxi Union clean sheet | 22% |
| Yanbian Longding clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shaanxi Union is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Shaanxi Union are backed at home, where they average 2.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding — FAQ
Who will win Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding?
Our statistical model makes Shaanxi Union the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Shaanxi Union 42%, draw 24%, Yanbian Longding 33%.
Will both teams score in Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding?
Expected goals are 1.76 for Shaanxi Union and 1.51 for Yanbian Longding — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Shaanxi Union or draw is 67%.