Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
Model pick: Shamrock Rovers (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 0.67
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shamrock Rovers | Dundalk |
|---|
| League position | #31 (4 pts) | #4 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Shamrock Rovers shown at home, Dundalk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers — last 5
WWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Dundalk — last 5
DLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shamrock Rovers (home) | Dundalk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.7 goals per game) | 3-7-3 in 13 (1.4 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Shamrock Rovers or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Dundalk or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Shamrock Rovers clean sheet | 51% |
| Dundalk clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shamrock Rovers is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Shamrock Rovers are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk — FAQ
Who will win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model makes Shamrock Rovers the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 56%, draw 25%, Dundalk 19%.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.67 for Dundalk — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Shamrock Rovers or draw is 85%.