Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis
Model pick: Persepolis (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.64 – 1.34
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shams Azar Qazvin | Persepolis |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #2 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Shams Azar Qazvin shown at home, Persepolis shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shams Azar Qazvin — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Persepolis — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 52% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shams Azar Qazvin (home) | Persepolis (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 52% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 36% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.64 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Shams Azar Qazvin or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Persepolis or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Shams Azar Qazvin clean sheet | 26% |
| Persepolis clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Persepolis is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Persepolis edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis — FAQ
Who will win Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis?
Our statistical model makes Persepolis the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Shams Azar Qazvin 20%, draw 30%, Persepolis 51%.
Will both teams score in Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis?
Expected goals are 0.64 for Shams Azar Qazvin and 1.34 for Persepolis — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shams Azar Qazvin vs Persepolis?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Shams Azar Qazvin or draw is 46%.