Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye
Model pick: Shandong Luneng (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.0 – 1.13
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shandong Luneng | Henan Jianye |
|---|
| League position | #6 (24 pts) | #12 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.4 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Shandong Luneng shown at home, Henan Jianye shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shandong Luneng — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Henan Jianye — last 5
WDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shandong Luneng (home) | Henan Jianye (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (2.4 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Cryzan (11) | Nazario Bruno (7) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.0 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Shandong Luneng or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Henan Jianye or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Shandong Luneng clean sheet | 32% |
| Henan Jianye clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shandong Luneng is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Shandong Luneng are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye — FAQ
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model makes Shandong Luneng the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Shandong Luneng 54%, draw 23%, Henan Jianye 23%.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Expected goals are 2.0 for Shandong Luneng and 1.13 for Henan Jianye — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Shandong Luneng or draw is 79%.