Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee
Model pick: Shandong Luneng (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.59 – 0.84
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shandong Luneng | Qingdao Manatee |
|---|
| League position | #7 (27 pts) | #16 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 0.4 / 2.8 |
*Shandong Luneng shown at home, Qingdao Manatee shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shandong Luneng — last 5
WLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Qingdao Manatee — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shandong Luneng (home) | Qingdao Manatee (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-2 in 10 (2.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-9 in 11 (1.2 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Cryzan (12) | Malcom Edjouma (6) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.59 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Shandong Luneng or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Qingdao Manatee or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Shandong Luneng clean sheet | 43% |
| Qingdao Manatee clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shandong Luneng is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Shandong Luneng are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee — FAQ
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee?
Our statistical model makes Shandong Luneng the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Shandong Luneng 70%, draw 18%, Qingdao Manatee 12%.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee?
Expected goals are 2.59 for Shandong Luneng and 0.84 for Qingdao Manatee — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Manatee?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Shandong Luneng or draw is 90%.