Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City
Model pick: Shandong Luneng (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.58 – 0.85
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shandong Luneng | Shenzhen Peng City |
|---|
| League position | #5 (36 pts) | #11 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Shandong Luneng shown at home, Shenzhen Peng City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shandong Luneng — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Shenzhen Peng City — last 5
WLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shandong Luneng (home) | Shenzhen Peng City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-3-2 in 12 (2.3 / 1.4 goals per game) | 2-1-9 in 12 (0.8 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Cryzan (13) | Moraes Wesley (9) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.58 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Shandong Luneng or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Shenzhen Peng City or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Shandong Luneng clean sheet | 43% |
| Shenzhen Peng City clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shandong Luneng is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Shandong Luneng are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City — FAQ
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City?
Our statistical model makes Shandong Luneng the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Shandong Luneng 69%, draw 18%, Shenzhen Peng City 13%.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City?
Expected goals are 2.58 for Shandong Luneng and 0.85 for Shenzhen Peng City — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Peng City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Shandong Luneng or draw is 90%.