Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda
Model pick: Shandong Luneng (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.03 – 1.0
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shandong Luneng | Tianjin Teda |
|---|
| League position | #6 (27 pts) | #14 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Shandong Luneng shown at home, Tianjin Teda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shandong Luneng — last 5
WLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Tianjin Teda — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shandong Luneng (home) | Tianjin Teda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-2 in 10 (2.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Cryzan (12) | Alberto Quiles (7) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.03 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Shandong Luneng or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Tianjin Teda or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Shandong Luneng clean sheet | 37% |
| Tianjin Teda clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shandong Luneng is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Shandong Luneng are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda — FAQ
Who will win Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model makes Shandong Luneng the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Shandong Luneng 54%, draw 24%, Tianjin Teda 22%.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Expected goals are 2.03 for Shandong Luneng and 1.0 for Tianjin Teda — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Shandong Luneng or draw is 82%.