Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye
Model pick: Shanghai Shenhua (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.78 – 0.89
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shanghai Shenhua | Henan Jianye |
|---|
| League position | #12 (22 pts) | #10 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Shanghai Shenhua shown at home, Henan Jianye shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua — last 5
LWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Henan Jianye — last 5
WDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shanghai Shenhua (home) | Henan Jianye (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (2.1 / 1.7 goals per game) | 4-2-4 in 10 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Nazario Bruno (8) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.78 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Shanghai Shenhua or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Henan Jianye or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Shanghai Shenhua clean sheet | 41% |
| Henan Jianye clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Shanghai Shenhua are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye — FAQ
Who will win Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model makes Shanghai Shenhua the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 49%, draw 24%, Henan Jianye 26%.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Expected goals are 1.78 for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.89 for Henan Jianye — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Shanghai Shenhua or draw is 81%.