Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Model pick: Shenzhen Peng City (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
31%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 1.15 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shenzhen Peng City | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|
| League position | #10 (20 pts) | #2 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Shenzhen Peng City shown at home, Chongqing Tonglianglong shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shenzhen Peng City — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 70% of home games go over 2.5.
Chongqing Tonglianglong — last 5
LDDWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shenzhen Peng City (home) | Chongqing Tonglianglong (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (2.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Moraes Wesley (8) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Shenzhen Peng City or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Shenzhen Peng City clean sheet | 38% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shenzhen Peng City is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Shenzhen Peng City are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong — FAQ
Who will win Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Our statistical model makes Shenzhen Peng City the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Shenzhen Peng City 39%, draw 30%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 31%.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Shenzhen Peng City and 0.96 for Chongqing Tonglianglong — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shenzhen Peng City vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Shenzhen Peng City or draw is 70%.