Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction & Preview
J-League (Japan) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 09:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Model pick: Yokohama F. Marinos (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.65
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shimizu S-Pulse | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
*Shimizu S-Pulse shown at home, Yokohama F. Marinos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shimizu S-Pulse — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Yokohama F. Marinos — last 5
WLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shimizu S-Pulse (home) | Yokohama F. Marinos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Se-Hun Oh (7) | Kaina Tanimura (10) |
J-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Yokohama F. Marinos or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet | 19% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yokohama F. Marinos is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Yokohama F. Marinos edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos — FAQ
Who will win Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
Our statistical model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Shimizu S-Pulse 36%, draw 27%, Yokohama F. Marinos 37%.
Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.65 for Yokohama F. Marinos — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Shimizu S-Pulse or draw is 54%.