Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata
Model pick: Shonan Bellmare (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 0.46
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Shonan Bellmare | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|
| League position | #3 (31 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Shonan Bellmare shown at home, Montedio Yamagata shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Shonan Bellmare — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Montedio Yamagata — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Shonan Bellmare (home) | Montedio Yamagata (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 0.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Shonan Bellmare or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Montedio Yamagata or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Shonan Bellmare clean sheet | 63% |
| Montedio Yamagata clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shonan Bellmare is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Shonan Bellmare are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata — FAQ
Who will win Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our statistical model makes Shonan Bellmare the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Shonan Bellmare 52%, draw 31%, Montedio Yamagata 16%.
Will both teams score in Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Shonan Bellmare and 0.46 for Montedio Yamagata — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Shonan Bellmare vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (23%). Double chance for Shonan Bellmare or draw is 86%.